Jesús Adrián Rodríguez

I’m a Venezuelan economist, currently based in Cardiff, UK. My research interests are public economics, development economics, labor economics, education, public policy, institutions and political economy.

I work as a research assistant at the Wales Fiscal Analysis, a research unit within the Wales Governance Centre (WGC) at Cardiff University. I recently completed an MITx Micromaster Program in Data, Economics, and Development Policy designed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL). In 2018, I received an MSc. in Economics from University of Warwick and a Master in Public Policy (MPP) from Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administracion (IESA) in 2012. At the center we conduct empirical research on taxation, inequality, labour market and public expenditures and prepare economic reports and policy briefings on the Welsh economy.

Before joining WGC, I worked as a research assistant for professor Elliott Ash from ETH Zurich, where I participated in several research projects on public finance and the intersection between law and economics. For instance, I conducted the replication files for the paper Ideas have consequences: the impact of law and economics on American Justice (joint with Suresh Naidu at Columbia and Daniel L. Chen at Toulouse) reject and resubmit in the Quarterly Journal of Economics. I also collected, organized and cleaned data on local tax revenues and budget information by county-year for the paper “Fiscal pressures and discriminatory policing: Evidence from traffic stops in Missouri” published in the Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics (joint with Allison Harris at Yale University).

You can access full CV here

Institutional Website here

Latest Publications:

In Charts: Covid-19 and the Welsh labour market [data & code]

This blog analyses latest data released by ONS to measure the labour market impact of covid-19 in Wales in terms of unemployment, redundancies, jobs adverts and vacancies. Figures for Jul-Sep 20 show an estimated 67k people were unemployed, which represents 27k (+65.2%) more than the previous quarter & the largest increase on the quarter since the 2008 financial crisis.

How will the Welsh workforce be affected by the firebreak lockdown? [pdf] [data & code]

This piece describes which industries, employees and occupations will be most affected by the new lockdown. We estimate that roughly 224,000 employees in Wales work in a sector that will be partially or entirely shut down due to the new firebreak lockdown. This figure represents 16.24% of the Welsh workforce.

How is Covid-19 affecting the Welsh economy? [pdf] [data & code]

This piece evaluates the impact of covid-19 on the Welsh economy by using business & labor force data. It also analyses how has government action mitigated the economic impact of Covid-19 & what the latest mobility trends data suggest for Wales and the UK.

Covid-19 & the Welsh economy: working from home [data & code]

This briefing analyses data from Labour Force Survey and Understanding Society data to determine the share of employees who could work from home in Wales before the Covid-19 crisis, and the average gross weekly pay of workers by industry and occupation. Furthermore, this paper estimates the potential for jobs in Wales to be done at home and the gap between pre-Covid-19 levels of working from home and potential working from home by UK region, industry, and occupation. We also conducted an international comparison between potential working from home in Wales and other nations in the world.

Covid-19 & the Welsh economy: shutdown sectors & key workers [data & code]

Using Labor Force Survey data, this briefing investigates the groups and sectors in Wales most significantly affected by the current pandemic, based on a set of economic and demographic characteristics, such as age, gender, ethnicity, and income levels.

Venezuela at the stage of macroeconomic collapse: A historical and comparative analysis

This paper conducts a historical and comparative analysis of GDP for 192 countries over the period 1980-2018 using data from the IMF. Results show that Venezuela lost 49.32% of its total GDP in just five years (2014-2018). This negative performance represents the worst macroeconomic performance in magnitude and duration in Venezuela history (1950-2018), the worst in Latin America and the second worst in the world during the period 1980-2018.