“Venezuela at the stage of macroeconomic collapse: A historical and comparative analysis” (with Jose Manuel Puente), Journal America Latina Hoy (2020).
This paper conducts a historical and comparative analysis of GDP for 192 countries over the period 1980-2018 using data from the IMF. Results show that Venezuela lost 49.32% of its total GDP in just five years (2014-2018). This negative performance represents the worst macroeconomic performance in magnitude and duration in Venezuela history (1950-2018), the worst in Latin America and the second worst in the world during the period 1980-2018.
- In Charts: Covid-19 and the Welsh labour market (with Cian Siôn) On Thinking Wales, Cardiff University Blog (Nov-20). Data & replication file in R here
This blog analyses the latest data released by ONS to measure the labour market impact of covid-19 in Wales in terms of unemployment, jobs adverts and vacancies. Figures for Jul-Sep 20 show an estimated 67k people were unemployed, which represents 65% more than the previous quarter & the largest increase on the quarter since the 2008 financial crisis.
- How will the Welsh workforce be affected by the firebreak lockdown?, (with Cian Siôn & Guto Ifan) Economics Observatory Website (Oct-20) [pdf] Data & replication file here.
This piece describes which industries and occupations will be most affected by the new lockdown. We estimate that roughly 224,000 employees in Wales work in a sector that will be partially or entirely shut down due to the new firebreak lockdown.
- How is Covid-19 affecting the Welsh economy?, (with Guto Ifan) Economics Observatory Website (Oct-20) [pdf] Data & replication file here.
This piece evaluates the impact of covid-19 on the Welsh economy by using business & labor force data. It also analyses how has government action mitigated the economic impact of Covid-19 & what latest mobility trends data suggest for Wales and the UK.
- Covid-19 and the Welsh economy: working from home, Wales Governance Centre publication (Aug-20). Data & replication file here
This briefing analyses data from Understanding Society and Labor Force Survey to determine the share of employees who can work from home in Wales pre-pandemic, and the potential of the Welsh economy for homeworking by industry and occupation.
- Covid-19 & the Welsh economy: shutdown sectors & key workers, Wales Governance Centre publication (Jun-20). Data & replication file here. Media coverage: ITV Wales
Using Labor Force Survey data, this briefing investigates the groups and sectors in Wales most significantly affected by the current pandemic, based on a set of economic and demographic characteristics, such as age, gender, ethnicity, and income levels.
- Implications of the UK General Election 2019 for the Welsh Government Budget (with Guto Ifan & Cian Siôn) Wales Governance Centre publication (2019)
- Venezuela: the world’s worst economy in 2016, (with Jose Manuel Puente) Debates IESA Journal (2016)
- Venezuela in crisis: the economy in 2014 and 2015, (with Jose Manuel Puente) Debates IESA Journal (2015)
“Venezuela: Diagnosis of a Macroeconomic Collapse, 1980-2019” (with Jose Manuel Puente), forthcoming in “Venezuela en la encrucijada”, Konrad Adenauer Foundation (2020)
“Venezuela, la révolution bolivarienne, 20 ans après” (with Jose Manuel Puente) University of Strasbourg, France (2019)
Previous policy reports
“The budgetary policy in Venezuela and its impact on subnational governments“, Direction of Planning and Budget. Municipality of Baruta, Venezuela (Feb-2016)
“The national budget and its impact on public finances of states and municipalities“ Autonomous Service of Tax Administration. Municipality of Baruta, Venezuela (Sep-2014)
“Policy measures to address the economic crisis in Venezuela” Autonomous Service of Tax Administration. Municipality of Baruta, Venezuela (Aug-2014)
“A misguided economic model and their impact on the municipal revenues“, Autonomous Service of Tax Administration. Municipality of Baruta, Venezuela (Jul-2014)
Latest from the Blog
ABSTRACT: By 2018, Venezuela had lost 49.32% of its total GDP in just five years (2014-2018). Performing a historical and comparative analysis with Stata’s econometrics package, results show that this aggregated evolution of GDP represents the worst macroeconomic performance in magnitude and duration in the history of Venezuela (1950-2018), the worst in Latin America andContinue reading “Venezuela at the stage of macroeconomic collapse: A historical and comparative analysis”
BRIEFING PAPER The disruption caused by Covid-19 on the Welsh economy prompted huge and immediate economic responses from the UK and Welsh governments. Some £1.7 billion of support for Welsh businesses has been announced through the Welsh budget for this year, with £680 million reaching businesses through Welsh local authorities to date. In May, 316,500Continue reading “Covid-19 and the Welsh economy: Shutdown sectors and key workers”
BRIEFING PAPER Key workers are playing a vital role in helping the country overcome the unprecedented challenges that Covid-19 has imposed on the economy and on society. Wales’ success in containing the spread of the virus and simultaneously ensuring the continued provision of essential public services will heavily depend on the ability of key workersContinue reading “Composition of key workers in Wales”
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